Never stop doubting

I recently read the book “ Superforecasting “, which shared the stories and processes of those that are able to make predictions far better than most people can.

While there is a lot of nuance in the book, and it’s well worth reading, one theme that came up over and over was that the best forecasters never stopped doubting themselves. Even for things they fully believed, they’d push at the edges over and over to make sure they were right (or change their mind if they were wrong).

The title of this post comes from this snippet in the book:

“Consensus is not always good; disagreement not always bad. If you do happen to agree, don’t take that agreement-in itself-as proof that you are right. Never stop doubting.”

There are a lot of things that you and I believe that are probably 100% correct, but it’s impossible to know which ideas are right and which are wrong. Always look for ways to disprove yourself and therefore make yourself smarter going forward.

This next quote from the book reminds me of how many of us cling to things like political ideals or smartphone alliances:

“For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.”

Many people hold things like politicians (and smart phones, and automakers, and many other things) as…