Omission is as bad as commission

When we are faced with a tough decision, it’s human nature to often to default to the status quo. Rather than risk making a change (commission), we simply do nothing (omission). As Annie Duke says in her book “ Quit”, the reason is because “ we’re more wary of “causing” a bad outcome by acting than “letting it happen” through inaction. “

Let’s Make a Deal

This is showcased through the “Monty Hall Problem” from the old game show “Let’s Make a Deal”. At a certain point in the game, the contestant is given the choice to choose from one of three doors, where one door has a fabulous prize behind it.

You choose a door but before your door is opened the host, Monty Hall, then opens one of the other doors to reveal a dud, leaving just your door and one other. Then Hall gives you the option to switch to the other door if you want. Should you switch? Absolutely! While it seems counter-intuitive and feels like a 50/50 decision at that point, switching actually doubles your chances of winning (from 1/3 to 2/3).

If you’ve not seen the problem explained before, this is a great video that shows why switching matters so much: