The odds don’t feel right

There are times in our lives when it feels like something should happen more often than it does, but the math proves that it’s actually on track.

For example, the Atlanta Braves made it to the postseason 14 straight times (1991–2005) but only won the World Series once. It feels like if you make it 14 years in a row, you should probably win 3–4 championships in that time, right? In actuality, with eight teams making it each year, they should have won just 1.75 championships in that time. So yes, their solo championship was less than expected, but even two championships during that 14 year run would have been more than they mathematically should have earned.

Coin Tosses

It’s like tossing a coin. If you flip it five times and they’re all heads, what are the odds of heads on the sixth toss? 50%.

As Joseph Bertrand has said, “ the coin has neither memory or consciousness “.

I wish the Braves would have won more titles during that run, but they weren’t as disappointing as it seems at first glance. All things being even, they had a 12.5% chance of a championship each season, so I’m glad one of them worked out for them.

That happens too often

On the other hand, you have events that are seemingly very unlikely yet occur far more…